MLB player props: Best bets for Friday (August 9) (2024)

This week has been good to us overall, but unfortunately yesterday was not one of our days, as we did not get any of our three predictions to come through. No fear, as the beauty of baseball means that we get another chance today with a full 15-game MLB betting slate.

So, please check out our favorite MLB player prop picks today, which will all be in the home run betting market.

Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+290) FanDuel

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

Three home runs in one game will certainly help, but Schwarber has been among the hottest hitters in baseball over the past couple weeks. He leads the MLB with six balls launched over the past seven days, which means 100-plus mph exit velocity and between 20-40 degrees of launch angle. Schwarber is known to be a streaky hitter who can go on home run binges, and it appears as though he is in the midst of one right now.

He has hit eight home runs in his last 12 games, with a ridiculous barrel rate of 37.9% in this stretch, plus a HardHit rate of 62.1%, average exit velocity of 96.9 mph and a launch angle of 19.7 degrees. Even yesterday, while he did not hit a home run, he still had two HardHits, with an average exit velocity of 107.2 mph.

Meanwhile, all six of those launched balls mentioned earlier have come against right-handed pitching, which is what he is facing tonight in Ryne Nelson of the D-backs.

Nelson has admittedly been good in his last couple starts in terms of allowing home runs, as he has not allowed one in any of his last five starts, but that has more to do with luck than anything else.

His average exit velocity in that stretch is 90.8 mph, which would be tied for the third-worst in the MLB if extrapolated out to the entire season. His launch angle in that stretch is 15.6 degrees, which would be the 20th-highest in MLB. He also throws a 4-seam fastball 55% of the time, and Schwarber crushes fastballs.

Over the past month, Schwarber has hit two home runs off 4-seam fastballs from RHP, with a barrel rate of 20%, HardHit rate of 50% and .500 ISO rate. The next two pitches that Nelson throws most often are changeups (20% of the time) and cutters (15%), two pitches that Schwarber also crushes, with two home runs and three other extra base hits this season in the past month.

Brent Rooker Home Run (+340) FanDuel

Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET

This is a play where we are backing a hot batter in Brent Rooker, who is going up against one of the worst home run pitchers in baseball. Jose Berrios is pitching for the Blue Jays, and he is absolutely a pitcher that you want to target for home run batter props.

He has the fifth-worst HR/9 in the MLB on the season at 1.66, and over his last 10 starts he has been even worse, with a HR/9 of 2.28. That is the third-worst HR/9 in MLB since June 8.

While Rooker has admittedly cooled off since his torrid July, it is a not as though he has been horrible recently. He should have the clear advantage over Berrios given the pitch-mix that Berrios throws and what Rooker hits well.

The top four pitches that Berriors throws are, in order, the sinker (43% of the time), slurve (37%), 4-seam fastball (21.87%) and changeup (18%).

Overall, against these four pitches combine,d Rooker has an ISO rate of .318 and a barrel rate of 13.64 percent, with two home runs overall over the past two weeks. Hopefully he gets back to his home run ways today.

Elly De La Cruz (+560) FanDuel

De La Cruz did not come through for us yesterday, but he once again has an awesome matchup today and has still been crushing the ball recently, so he is another good play. He is tied with Schwarber for the most HardHit line-drives + fly-balls over the past week with nine total against right-handed pitching.

While he did not hit a home run yesterday, he had three hits in the game, including three HardHits and an average exit velocity of 99.6 mph. He did not go yard because his launch angle was too low, but he is going up against one of the worst HR pitchers in the league today in Aaron Civale of the Brewers.

Of all pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings, Civale has the third-worst HR/9 in MLB. His top three pitches thrown are cutters (32% of the time), sinkers (28%) and curveballs. Over the past month, De La Cruz has an 18.75% barrel rate, 64.29% HardHit rate and an ISO rate of .500 against these three pitches from right-handed pitching.

Today, he goes yard.

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MLB player props: Best bets for Friday (August 9) (2024)

FAQs

What are fun prop bets? ›

A prop bet, short for proposition bet, is a wager that is a game within the game. Usually not tied to the final score of the event a bettor is thinking about wagering on, prop bets highlight smaller events within a particular matchup that a customer predicts will happen before the clock ticks to zero.

Do most MLB games go over or under? ›

Between the 2007 and 2021 regular seasons, MLB Unders have hit at a slightly higher 50.7% rate. Playoff Over/Unders have gone Over at a 50.1% rate in that same span.

What is the over under run score in MLB? ›

Over/under: One of the simplest and most popular MLB betting options, this is simply a bet on how many runs will be scored in a given game. If the over/under for San Diego vs. Colorado is 9.5, over bets cash if the two teams combine to score 10 runs or more while under bets cash if they combine for nine runs or fewer.

How often do Favourites win in MLB? ›

Especially for novice bettors, it may be tempting to bet on the favorites because they do win more often than not (roughly 65% of the time, according to various baseball research services). However, oddsmakers know that bettors like to bet on favorites, and they set the odds accordingly.

Are player props good bets? ›

They just might be. Because sportsbooks vary so much in the lines they set for prop bets, someone with expert analysis in player props may be able to find an edge over the sportsbooks, who generally are much sharper when it comes to traditional moneyline, spread and totals bets.

How do you pick a prop bet? ›

How To Find The Best Value Betting Player Props
  1. Check out Outlier for Player Prop Research. ...
  2. Go Deep on Fantasy Sports. ...
  3. Track Player Split Stats. ...
  4. Consider Other People's Takes. ...
  5. Bet On The Collateral Impacts. ...
  6. Know The Player Prop Rules. ...
  7. Shop for the Best Prop Price.
Feb 15, 2023

What's the best thing to bet on in baseball? ›

Moneyline. The simplest and most popular type of bet in baseball is the moneyline bet. Here, you are betting on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the score.

What hits more often, over or under? ›

The points-per-game average from 2003-2013 was 43.5 and the average game total was 42.5. Overs hit 47.8% of the time and unders occurred at a 49.3% rate.

Which position makes the most in baseball? ›

MLB's highest-paid players by position in 2024:

Starting pitchers: Max Scherzer, Rangers and Justin Verlander, Astros, $43.3 million. Right fielders: Aaron Judge, Yankees, $40 million. Third basemen: Anthony Rendon, Angels, $38.6 million.

How to pick over under in baseball? ›

If you want to bet on the over in the game, you will simply select the over 9.5 -110 option. This means that for you to win your bet, there must be 10 or more runs scored by both teams combined. Extra innings are included. If you wanted to bet on the 'under', you would select 'under 9.5 -110.

Should you run up the score in baseball? ›

At all levels of play, it is generally accepted that players or teams close to breaking significant records can run up the score without it being seen as overtly disrespectful.

What are the odds for over under? ›

Most Over/Under bets have a vig of -110 on both the Over and Under. This is also known as a flat rate. That means that for every $100 you wish to win you must wager $110 – or a payout of 91 cents for every $1 wagered.

What is the easiest sport to bet on? ›

Read on to find out what these sports are.
  • Top 5 Easiest Sports To Bet On. Here's a list of the top five easiest sports to bet on, ranked in descending order:
  • Tennis. ...
  • Football/Soccer. ...
  • NFL. ...
  • Basketball. ...
  • Boxing/MMA. ...
  • Final Thoughts.
Jan 2, 2024

How often does the Moneyline Favorite win? ›

NFL moneyline betting FAQs

Yes, betting the NFL moneyline can be profitable if you properly research your bets and carefully manage your money. How often does the moneyline favorite win in the NFL? Since 1985, NFL moneyline favorites have won 66.5 percent of the time.

How to bet on baseball like a pro? ›

MLB Betting Tips and Strategies
  1. Use Plus-Money Underdogs to Your Advantage. MLB betting on plus-money underdogs – for example, a team with odds of +140 rather than the favorites – is usually a more profitable but riskier strategy. ...
  2. Avoid Popular MLB Picks. ...
  3. Go Against the Field. ...
  4. Keep Track of the Weather. ...
  5. Consider the Umpires.
Jan 16, 2024

What are good fun bets? ›

Fun Bets with Friends that are not money related
  • Changing team names.
  • Cooking a meal.
  • Loser buys.
  • Gift cards.
  • Charity donations.

What are fun bets called? ›

In gambling, a "proposition bet" (prop bet, prop, novelty, or a side bet) is a bet made regarding the occurrence or non-occurrence during a game (usually a gambling game) of an event not directly affecting the game's final outcome.

What are exotic prop bets? ›

Also known as a proposition bet (or prop), an exotic bet is a wager not tied to the final score or outcome of a game.

What is an example of a prop bet? ›

Examples of Prop Bets include betting on which player will score the first goal, the number of strikeouts a pitcher will throw, the total number of touchdowns in a football game, or even non-sporting events like the length of the National Anthem.

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