This week has been good to us overall, but unfortunately yesterday was not one of our days, as we did not get any of our three predictions to come through. No fear, as the beauty of baseball means that we get another chance today with a full 15-game MLB betting slate.
So, please check out our favorite MLB player prop picks today, which will all be in the home run betting market.
Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+290) FanDuel
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET
Three home runs in one game will certainly help, but Schwarber has been among the hottest hitters in baseball over the past couple weeks. He leads the MLB with six balls launched over the past seven days, which means 100-plus mph exit velocity and between 20-40 degrees of launch angle. Schwarber is known to be a streaky hitter who can go on home run binges, and it appears as though he is in the midst of one right now.
He has hit eight home runs in his last 12 games, with a ridiculous barrel rate of 37.9% in this stretch, plus a HardHit rate of 62.1%, average exit velocity of 96.9 mph and a launch angle of 19.7 degrees. Even yesterday, while he did not hit a home run, he still had two HardHits, with an average exit velocity of 107.2 mph.
Meanwhile, all six of those launched balls mentioned earlier have come against right-handed pitching, which is what he is facing tonight in Ryne Nelson of the D-backs.
Nelson has admittedly been good in his last couple starts in terms of allowing home runs, as he has not allowed one in any of his last five starts, but that has more to do with luck than anything else.
His average exit velocity in that stretch is 90.8 mph, which would be tied for the third-worst in the MLB if extrapolated out to the entire season. His launch angle in that stretch is 15.6 degrees, which would be the 20th-highest in MLB. He also throws a 4-seam fastball 55% of the time, and Schwarber crushes fastballs.
Over the past month, Schwarber has hit two home runs off 4-seam fastballs from RHP, with a barrel rate of 20%, HardHit rate of 50% and .500 ISO rate. The next two pitches that Nelson throws most often are changeups (20% of the time) and cutters (15%), two pitches that Schwarber also crushes, with two home runs and three other extra base hits this season in the past month.
Brent Rooker Home Run (+340) FanDuel
Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET
This is a play where we are backing a hot batter in Brent Rooker, who is going up against one of the worst home run pitchers in baseball. Jose Berrios is pitching for the Blue Jays, and he is absolutely a pitcher that you want to target for home run batter props.
He has the fifth-worst HR/9 in the MLB on the season at 1.66, and over his last 10 starts he has been even worse, with a HR/9 of 2.28. That is the third-worst HR/9 in MLB since June 8.
While Rooker has admittedly cooled off since his torrid July, it is a not as though he has been horrible recently. He should have the clear advantage over Berrios given the pitch-mix that Berrios throws and what Rooker hits well.
The top four pitches that Berriors throws are, in order, the sinker (43% of the time), slurve (37%), 4-seam fastball (21.87%) and changeup (18%).
Overall, against these four pitches combine,d Rooker has an ISO rate of .318 and a barrel rate of 13.64 percent, with two home runs overall over the past two weeks. Hopefully he gets back to his home run ways today.
Elly De La Cruz (+560) FanDuel
De La Cruz did not come through for us yesterday, but he once again has an awesome matchup today and has still been crushing the ball recently, so he is another good play. He is tied with Schwarber for the most HardHit line-drives + fly-balls over the past week with nine total against right-handed pitching.
While he did not hit a home run yesterday, he had three hits in the game, including three HardHits and an average exit velocity of 99.6 mph. He did not go yard because his launch angle was too low, but he is going up against one of the worst HR pitchers in the league today in Aaron Civale of the Brewers.
Of all pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings, Civale has the third-worst HR/9 in MLB. His top three pitches thrown are cutters (32% of the time), sinkers (28%) and curveballs. Over the past month, De La Cruz has an 18.75% barrel rate, 64.29% HardHit rate and an ISO rate of .500 against these three pitches from right-handed pitching.
Today, he goes yard.
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